Waste forecasts

Estimates of future radioactive waste arisings are projections made by the organisations that operate sites.

These forecasts are based on assumptions about the nature, scale and timing of future operations and activities at their sites, known as the ‘scenario’. These projections may change in future, as plans and arrangements are developed.  They may also change due to commercial, policy or funding reasons, or if improved data become available.

Find out more about the 2022 Inventory scenarios in the 2022 UK Radioactive Waste Inventory report.

The table below gives the estimated volumes and masses of radioactive waste which are forecast to arise after 1 April 2022.

Estimated future waste arisings – Reported volumes and masses

Waste type	Reported volume (m3)	Reported mass (tonnes)	Packaged volume (m3)	No of packages
HLW	See note 1	See note 1	See note 1	See note 1
ILW	148,000	180,000	321,000	136,000
LLW (2)	1,550,000	1,900,000	1,320,000	18,900
VLLW	2,750,000	2,800,000	2,610,000	– (3)
Total	4,420,000	4,900,000	4,270,000	169,000

(1) From 1 April 2022 there will be a net decrease in the reported volume and mass of HLW. This is because accumulated HAL is being conditioned, which reduces its volume and mass by about two-thirds. It is also because vitrified HLW is being exported to overseas customers.

(2) LLW includes 323,000 m3 reported volume of mixed LLW/VLLW at Springfields.

(3) As VLLW can be disposed to appropriately permitted landfill sites, no package numbers are collated for this waste category in the inventory.

The vast majority of this forecast radioactive waste volume already exists in the form of nuclear reactors, waste storage and treatment buildings and legacy wastes. A small proportion will arise from planned future operations at existing sites.

Nuclear Waste Services separately reviews waste estimates for new nuclear power stations to help support planning for disposal facilities. Further information about this can be found in the disposability assessments, which are carried out under the Generic Design Assessment (GDA) process.

Find out more about waste quantities in the 2019 UK Radioactive Waste Inventory report.